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What Will It Take for Prices To Come Down?
You may be wondering if home prices are going to crash. And believe it or not, some people might even be hoping this happens so they can finally purchase a more affordable home. But experts agree that’s not what’s in the cards – and here’s why.
There are more people who want to buy a home than there are homes available to purchase. That’s what drives prices up.
Let’s break that down and explore why, nationally, home prices aren’t going to be coming down anytime soon.
Prices Depend on Supply and Demand
The housing market works like any other market – when demand is high and supply is low, prices rise.
According to the latest estimates, the U.S. is facing a housing shortfall of several million homes. That means there are far more people looking to buy (demand) than there are homes for sale (supply). That mismatch is the key reason why prices won’t fall at the national level. As David Childers, President of Keeping Current Matters (KCM), puts it:
“The main driving force on pricing is the limited amount of inventory in most markets across the country. That issue is not going to be solved overnight or in the next twelve months.”
How Did We Get Here?
For over 15 years, homebuilders haven’t been building enough homes to keep up with buyer demand. After the 2008 housing crisis, homebuilding slowed significantly, and it’s only recently started to recover (see graph below):
Even with new construction on the rise over the past few years, builders are playing catch-up. And according to AmericanProgress.org, they’re still not even keeping up with today’s demand, let alone making up for years of underbuilding.
And as long as there’s a housing shortage, home prices will remain steady or increase in most areas.
What About Next Year?
The majority of experts agree prices will keep rising next year, but at a much slower, healthier pace (see graph below):
But it’s important to note home prices vary by market. What happens nationally might not reflect exactly what’s happening in your area. If your local market has more inventory available, prices could grow more slowly or even decline slightly. But in areas where inventory remains tight, prices will keep climbing – and that’s what’s happening throughout most of the country. That’s why it’s crucial to work with a local real estate expert who understands your market and can explain what’s going on where you live.
Bottom Line
If you’re wondering what it’ll take for prices to come down, it all goes back to supply and demand. With inventory still limited in most markets, prices are likely to remain steady or rise.
To see what’s happening with home prices where we live, let’s connect. That way you’ll have help understanding our market and making a plan that works for you.
Why Did More People Decide To Sell Their Homes Recently?
Homeowners typically slow down their moving plans as the summer months wrap up, and as a result, fewer homes are listed for sale in the fall. It’s a predictable, seasonal trend in real estate. But this year, mortgage rates came down at the same time the number of homes on the market usually starts to decline. So, what happened? More homeowners decided to sell, so more homes came to the market.
The most recent data from Realtor.com reveals that in September, the number of homes put up for sale increased by 11.6% compared to this time last year.
As the green circle in the graph below shows, the typical September decline in homes coming to the market didn’t happen – that number actually went up (see graph below):
Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains why there was an unseasonable rise:
“This sharp increase is largely due to the decline in mortgage rates in mid-August, enticing homeowners to sell.”
So, as rates came down at the end of the summer, more people jumped into the market and decided to make their move.
What Does This Mean If You’re Looking To Buy a Home?
It means more fresh options to choose from than you’ve had in a while – not the ones that have been sitting around, unsold.
But keep in mind, mortgage rates have been volatile lately, ticking up slightly in recent weeks, which could limit the number of people who feel comfortable with the idea of selling in the months ahead. And in this market, it’s mortgage rates that are largely driving homeowner decisions.
Why Buy Now, Rather Than Wait?
Whether you’re looking for a starter home, an upgrade, or hoping to downsize, you have more homes to choose from right now. And if you can find what you’re looking for, know that these new, fresh options won’t be on the market forever. So, staying on top of what’s available in your local area with a trusted agent is key.
And remember, one month doesn’t make a trend. So, what does that mean going forward? Whether more homeowners than normal continue to put their houses on the market will largely depend on what happens with mortgage rates and the economic factors that impact them, like inflation, employment, and the reactions by the Federal Reserve.
With that in mind, now might be your moment, while more homes are available – if you’re ready, willing, and able to buy this fall.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:
“The rise in inventory – and, more technically, the accompanying months’ supply – implies home buyers are in a much-improved position to find the right home and at more favorable prices.”
Bottom Line
As rates came down at the end of the summer, sellers started to trickle back into the market, which means buyers have more choices right now. Let’s connect to make sure you have a trusted advisor to help you navigate the new options before they’re all scooped up.
Two Reasons Why the Housing Market Won’t Crash
You may have heard chatter recently about the economy and talk about a possible recession. It’s no surprise that kind of noise gets some people worried about a housing market crash. Maybe you’re one of them. But here’s the good news – there’s no need to panic. The housing market is not set up for a crash right now.
Real estate journalist Michele Lerner says:
“A housing market crash happens when home values plummet due to a lack of demand for homes or an oversupply.”
With that definition in mind, here are two reasons why this just isn’t on the horizon.
1. Demand for Homes Is Higher than Supply
One of the biggest reasons the housing market crashed back in 2008 was an oversupply of homes. Today, though, it’s a very different story.
It’s a general rule of thumb that a market where supply and demand are balanced has a six-month supply of homes. A higher number means supply outpaces demand, and a lower number means demand outpaces supply. The graph below uses data from NAR to put today’s situation into context:
The graph compares housing supply during three different periods of time. The red bar shows there were 13 months of supply before the 2008 crisis, which was far too much. The gray bar shows a balanced market with six months of supply, for context. And the blue bar shows there are only 4.2 months of supply today.
Put simply, there are more people who want to buy homes than there are homes available to buy right now. So, demand is greater than supply. When that happens, home prices stay steady or rise – the opposite of a housing market crash.
It’s important to note that inventory levels differ from market to market. Some areas may be more balanced, while a few could have a slight oversupply, which can impact prices locally. However, most markets continue to experience a shortage of homes.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“We simply don’t have enough inventory. Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.”
2. Unemployment Is Still Low
When people are unemployed, they’re more likely to have trouble making their mortgage payments and may be forced to sell or face foreclosure. That was a big problem during the 2008 financial crisis. Today, the employment situation is much more stable (see graph below):
Again, this graph shows three different periods of time, but this one is the unemployment rate. The red bar represents the 2008 financial crisis when unemployment was very high at 8.3%. The gray bar shows the 75-year average of 5.7%. And the blue bar shows the unemployment rate today, and it’s much lower at just 4.1%.
Right now, people are working, earning an income, and making their mortgage payments. That’s one reason why the wave of foreclosures that happened in 2008 isn’t going to happen again this time. Plus, since so many people are employed right now, many are actually in a position to buy a home, and this demand keeps upward pressure on prices.
Today’s Housing Market Is Stronger than in 2008
While it’s understandable to be concerned when you hear talk of a recession and economic uncertainty, but know this: the housing market is in a much better place than it was in 2008. According to Rick Sharga, Founder and CEO at CJ Patrick Company:
“Literally everything is different about today’s housing market dynamics than the conditions that led to the housing crisis.”
Demand for homes still outpaces supply, and unemployment remains low. And these are two key factors that will help prevent the housing market from crashing any time soon.
Bottom Line
The housing market is doing a lot better than it was in 2008, but it’s important to remember that real estate is very local.
So, it’s always a good idea to stay informed about our specific market. If you have any questions or want to discuss how these factors are playing out in our area, feel free to reach out.
This Is the Sweet Spot Homebuyers Have Been Waiting For
After months of sitting on the sidelines, many homebuyers who were priced out by high mortgage rates and affordability challenges finally have an opportunity to make their move. With rates trending down, today’s market is a sweet spot for buyers—and it’s one that may not last long.
So, if you’ve put your own move on the back burner, here’s why maybe you shouldn’t delay your plans any longer.
As you weigh your options and decide if you should buy now or wait, ask yourself this: What do you think everyone else is going to do?
The truth is, if mortgage rates continue to ease, as experts project, more buyers will jump back into the market. A survey from Bankrate shows over half of homeowners would be motivated to buy this year if rates drop below 6% (see graph below):
With rates already in the low 6% range, we’re not terribly far off from hitting that threshold. The bottom line is, that when they drop into the 5s, the number of buyers in the market is going to go up – and that means more competition for you.
That increased demand will likely push home prices up, which could potentially take away from some of the benefits you’d gain from a slightly lower interest rate. As Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Real Estate Research at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:
“The downside of increased demand is that it puts upward pressure on home prices as multiple buyers compete for a limited number of homes. In markets with ongoing housing shortages, this price increase can offset some of the affordability gains from lower mortgage rates.”
So, while waiting to buy may seem like a smart move, it could backfire if rising prices outpace your savings from slightly lower rates.
What This Means for You
Right now, you’ve got the chance to get ahead of all of that. Today’s market is a buyer sweet spot. Why? Because a lot of other buyers are waiting – which means not as many people are actively looking for homes. That means less competition for you.
At the same time, affordability has already improved quite a bit. Recent easing in mortgage rates has made homeownership more accessible. As Mike Simonsen, Founder of Altos Research, says:
“Mortgage payments on the typical-price home are 7% lower than last year and are 13% lower than the peak in May 2024.”
And while the supply of homes for sale is still low, it’s also higher than it’s been in years. According to Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com:
“The number of homes actively for sale continues to be elevated compared with last year, growing by 35.8%, a 10th straight month of growth, and now sits at the highest since May 2020.”
This means you now have more options to choose from than you’ve had in quite a while.
With fewer buyers in the market, improving affordability, and more homes to choose from, you have the chance to find the right one before the competition heats up.
Why Waiting Could Cost You
If you’re waiting for the perfect time to buy, it’s important to understand that timing the market is nearly impossible. The longer you wait, the higher the risk that market conditions will shift—and not necessarily in your favor. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:
“It’s one of those things where you should be careful what you wish for. A further drop in mortgage rates could bring a surge of demand that makes it tougher to actually buy a house.”
Bottom Line
Don’t wait until you have to deal with more competition and higher prices – you already have the chance to buy a home while we’re in the sweet spot today. Let’s connect to make sure you’re taking advantage of it.
Buying Beats Renting in 22 Major U.S. Cities
That’s right—according to a recent study from Zillow, in 22 of the 50 largest metro areas, monthly mortgage payments are now lower than rent payments (see chart below):
As mortgage rates have eased off their recent peak, home prices have moderated, and inventory has ticked up, affordability has improved significantly. When you add all of that up, it’s getting less expensive to buy a home than to rent one in many parts of the country.
This is a big deal if you’ve been renting for a while now. But if you don’t see your city on this list, don’t sweat it. Things are moving fast, and your area might be joining these top metros soon.
You see, talking with a local real estate agent about what’s happening in your market before this happens in your ideal neighborhood could really change the game for you. It’s all about being informed by a true expert, and understanding what was out of reach before might actually be getting more affordable than you think.
Now, while this study compares monthly rent to principal and interest on a mortgage payment (not the whole monthly payment), let’s think through this. As Zillow notes, what you can’t ignore when you buy a home are things like taxes, insurance, utilities, and maintenance that should also be factored into your budget and your monthly payment.
But remember – renters pay extra fees too, like renters’ insurance, utilities, parking, and more. And while doing the math may feel like a drag, this equation could be a much more exciting one to work through today.
So, grab your calculator and your agent because the big takeaway is this: it may be time to determine if you’re in a spot to afford what you couldn’t just a few months ago.
As Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow, says:
“… for those who can make it work, homeownership may come with lower monthly costs and the ability to build long-term wealth in the form of home equity — something you lose out on as a renter. With mortgage rates dropping, it’s a great time to see how your affordability has changed and if it makes more sense to buy than rent.”
Whether you live in one of these budget-friendly metros where the scales have already tipped in your favor, or any town in-between, it’s time to connect with a local real estate agent to get the conversation started.
With mortgage rates coming down and more homes hitting the market, you’ll want to be ready to jump back into your search – before everyone else does.
Bottom Line
If you’re tired of renting and ready to find out what it takes to purchase a home in our area now that the landscape may be shifting, let’s do the math together to see if buying a home makes sense for you now or sometime soon.
Are We Heading into a Balanced Market?
If you’ve been keeping an eye on the housing market over the past couple of years, you know sellers have had the upper hand. But is that going to shift now that inventory is growing? Here’s a breakdown of what you need to know.
What Is a Balanced Market?
A balanced market is generally defined as a market with about a five-to-seven-month supply of homes available for sale. In this type of market, neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage. Prices tend to stabilize, and there’s a healthier number of homes to choose from. And after many years when sellers had all the leverage, a more balanced market would be a welcome sight for people looking to move. The question is – is that really where the market is headed?
After starting the year with a three-month supply of homes nationally, inventory has increased to four months. That may not sound like a lot, but it means the market is getting closer to balanced – even though it’s not quite there yet. It’s important to note this increase in inventory is not leading to an oversupply that would cause a crash. Even with the growth lately, there’s still nowhere near enough supply for that to happen.
The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to give you an idea of where inventory has been in the past, and where it’s at today:
For now, this is still seller’s market territory – it’s just not as frenzied of a seller’s market as it’s been over the past few years. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“The faster housing supply increases, the more affordability improves and the strength of a seller’s market wanes.”
What This Means for You and Your Move
Here’s how this shift impacts you and the market conditions you’ll face when you move. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:
“Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis.”
The graphs below use the latest data from NAR and Realtor.com to help show examples of these changes:
Homes Are Sitting on the Market Longer: Since more homes are on the market, they’re not selling quite as fast. For buyers, this means you may have more time to find the right home. For sellers, it’s important to price your house right if you want it to sell. If you don’t, buyers might choose better-priced options.
Sellers Are Receiving Fewer Offers: As a seller, you might need to be more flexible and willing to compromise on price or terms to close the deal. For buyers, you could start to face less intense competition since you have more options to choose from.
Fewer Buyers Are Waiving Inspections: As a buyer, you have more negotiation power now. And that’s why fewer buyers are waiving inspections. For sellers, this means you need to be ready to negotiate and address repair requests to keep the sale moving forward.
How a Real Estate Agent Can Help
But this is just the national picture. The type of market you’re in is going to vary a lot based on how much inventory is available. So, lean on a local real estate agent for insight into how your area stacks up.
Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding how the market is changing gives you a big advantage. Your agent has the latest data and local insights, so you know exactly what’s happening and how to navigate it.
Bottom Line
The real estate market is always changing, and it’s important to stay informed. Whether you’re buying or selling, understanding this shift toward a balanced market can help. If you have any questions or need expert advice, don’t hesitate to reach out.
Are There More Homes for Sale Where You Live?
One of the biggest bright spots in today’s housing market is how much the supply of homes for sale has grown since the beginning of this year.
Recent data from Realtor.com shows that nationally, there are 36.6% more homes actively for sale now compared to the same time last year. That’s a significant improvement. It gives you far more options for your move than you would’ve had just a year ago. And with supply improving, you’re also regaining a bit of negotiation power. So, if you’re someone who thought about buying a home over the last few years but was discouraged by how limited inventory was, this should be welcome news.
As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“Increased housing supply spells good news for consumers who want to see more properties before making purchasing decisions.”
But just so you have perspective, even though inventory has grown, that doesn’t mean we’ve suddenly flipped to an oversupply of homes on the market. There are nowhere near enough homes for sale to make prices crash. If you compare today’s inventory levels to more normal, pre-pandemic numbers (2017–2019), there are still roughly 29% fewer homes actively for sale now (see graph below):
So, while we’re up by almost 37% year-over-year, we’re still not back to how much inventory there’d be in a normal market.
As Bill McBride, Housing Analyst for Calculated Risk, explains:
“ . . . currently inventory is increasing year-over-year but is still well below pre-pandemic levels.”
But that’s okay. It’s to be expected. As a country, it’ll take a while to get back to the typical level of homes for sale. And the good news for buyers is, in some select markets, it’s closer to being a reality.
Here’s a rundown of what today’s inventory growth looks like by region (see graph below):
Real estate will always be hyper-local. If you want to find out what inventory numbers look like where you live, reach out to a local agent. They’ll be able to tell you what they’re seeing and how it stacks up to the national market. You may find you have even more opportunity to move where you are.
Bottom Line
The supply of homes across the country is improving in a big way. As a buyer, that gives you more options for your home search, and ultimately, a better chance of finding what you like.
So, what are you looking for in a home? And what’s your budget? Let’s go over that together to find the options that may be right for you.
3 Reasons Why We’re Not Headed for a Housing Crash
Back in 2008, there was an oversupply of homes for sale. Today, there’s an undersupply. The three main sources of inventory show this isn’t like the last time. Existing homes, new homes, and foreclosures are all way below the levels we saw during the housing crash. Inventory data shows there just aren’t enough homes available to have a repeat of what happened back in 2008.
3 Reasons Why We’re Not Headed for a Housing Crash
Back in 2008, there was an oversupply of homes for sale. Today, there’s an undersupply. The three main sources of inventory show this isn’t like the last time. Existing homes, new homes, and foreclosures are all way below the levels we saw during the housing crash. Inventory data shows there just aren’t enough homes available to have a repeat of what happened back in 2008.
Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008
Even if you didn’t own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with the worry that something like that could happen again. But rest easy, because things are different than they were back then. As Business Insider says:
“Though many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond.”
Here’s why experts are so confident. For the market (and home prices) to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn’t show that’s happening. Right now, there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time – and that’s true even with the inventory growth we’ve seen this year. You see, the housing supply comes from three main sources:
- Homeowners deciding to sell their houses (existing homes)
- New home construction (newly built homes)
- Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)
And if we look at those three main sources of inventory, you’ll see it’s clear this isn’t like 2008.
Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses
Although the supply of existing (previously owned) homes is up compared to this time last year, it’s still low overall. And while this varies by local market, nationally, the current months’ supply is well below the norm, and even further below what we saw during the crash. The graph below shows this more clearly.
If you look at the latest data (shown in green), compared to 2008 (shown in red), we only have about a third of that available inventory today. 
So, what does this mean? There just aren’t enough homes available to make values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there’d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that’s not the case right now.
New Home Construction
People are also talking a lot about what’s going on with newly built houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are overdoing it. Even though new homes make up a larger percentage of the total inventory than the norm, there’s no need for alarm. Here’s why.
The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. The orange on the graph shows the overbuilding that happened in the lead-up to the crash. And, if you look at the red in the graph, you’ll see that builders have been underbuilding pretty consistently since then: 
There’s just too much of a gap to make up. Builders aren’t overbuilding today, they’re catching up. A recent article from Bankrate says:
“What’s more, builders remember the Great Recession all too well, and they’ve been cautious about their pace of construction. The result is an ongoing shortage of homes for sale.”
Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)
The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. During the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn’t truly afford.
Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from ATTOM to show how things have changed since the housing crash: 
This graph makes it clear that as lending standards got tighter and buyers became more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures (shown in black) and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw when the market crashed.
While you may see headlines that foreclosure volume is ticking up – remember, that’s only compared to recent years when very few foreclosures happened. We’re still below the normal level we’d see in a typical year.
What This Means for You
Inventory levels aren’t anywhere near where they’d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. As Forbes explains:
“As already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we’re in a bubble ready to pop. However, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.”
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, points to the laws of supply and demand as a reason why we aren’t headed for a crash:
“There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.”
And Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“We will not have a repeat of the 2008–2012 housing market crash. There are no risky subprime mortgages that could implode, nor the combination of a massive oversupply and overproduction of homes.”
Bottom Line
The market doesn’t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis – and there’s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That’s why housing experts and inventory data tell us there isn’t a crash on the horizon.
