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What To Look For From This Week’s Fed Meeting
You may be hearing a lot of talk about the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and how their actions will impact the housing market right now. Here’s why.
The Fed meets again this week to decide the next step with the Federal Funds Rate. That’s how much it costs banks to borrow from each other. Now, that’s not the same thing as setting mortgage rates, but mortgage rates can be influenced through this process. And if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you may be wondering about the downstream impact and when mortgage rates will come down.
Here’s a quick rundown of what you need to know to help you anticipate what’ll happen next. The Fed’s decisions are guided by these three key economic indicators:
- The Direction of Inflation
- How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
- The Unemployment Rate
Let’s take a look at each one.
1. The Direction of Inflation
You’ve likely noticed prices for everyday goods and services seem to be higher each time you make a purchase at the store. That’s because of inflation – and the Fed wants to see that number come back down so it’s closer to their 2% target.
Right now, it’s still higher than that. But despite a little volatility, inflation has generally been moving in the right direction. It gradually came down over the past two years, and is holding fairly steady right now (see graph below):
The path of inflation – though still not at their target rate – is a big part of the reason why the Fed will likely lower the Fed Funds Rate again this week to make borrowing less expensive, while still ensuring the economy continues to grow.
2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding
The Fed is also keeping an eye on how many new jobs are added to the economy each month. They want job growth to slow down a bit before they cut the Federal Funds Rate further. When fewer jobs are created, it shows the economy is still doing well, but gradually cooling off—exactly what they’re aiming for. And that’s what’s happening right now. Reuters says:
“Any doubts the Federal Reserve will go ahead with an interest-rate cut . . . fell away on Friday after a government report showed U.S. employers added fewer workers in October than in any month since December 2020.”
Employers are still hiring, but just not as many positions right now. This shows the job market is starting to slow down after running hot for a while, which is what the Fed wants to see.
3. The Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate shows the percentage of people who want jobs but can’t find them. A low unemployment rate means most people are working, which is great. However, it can push inflation higher because more people working means more spending—and that makes prices go up.
Many economists consider any unemployment rate below 5% to be as close to full employment as is realistically possible. In the most recent report, unemployment is sitting at 4.1% (see graph below):
Unemployment this low shows the labor market is still strong even as fewer jobs were added to the economy. That’s the balance the Fed is looking for.
What Does This Mean Going Forward?
Overall, the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see – and that’s why experts say they will likely cut the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter of a percentage point this week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
If that expectation ends up being correct, that could pave the way for mortgage rates to come down too. But that doesn’t mean they’ll fall immediately. It will take some time. Remember, the Fed doesn’t determine mortgage rates. Forecasts show mortgage rates will ease more gradually over the course of the next year as long as these economic indicators continue to move in the right direction and the Fed can continue their Federal Funds rate cuts through 2025.
But a change in any one of the factors mentioned here could cause a shift in the market and in the Fed’s actions in the days and months ahead. So, brace for some volatility, and for mortgage rates to respond along the way. As Ralph McLaughlin, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, notes:
“The trajectory of rates over the coming months will be largely dependent on three key factors: (1) the performance of the labor market, (2) the outcome of the presidential election, and (3) any possible reemergence of inflationary pressure. While volatility has been the theme of mortgage rates over the past several months, we expect stability to reemerge towards the end of November and into early December.”
Bottom Line
While the Fed’s actions play a part, economic data and market conditions are what really drive mortgage rates. As we move through the rest of 2024 and 2025, expect rates to stabilize or decline gradually, offering more certainty in what has been a volatile market.
Expect the Unexpected: Anticipating Volatility in Today’s Housing Market
You’ve probably noticed one thing if you’re thinking about making a move: the housing market feels a bit unpredictable right now. The truth is, from home prices to mortgage rates, we’re seeing more volatility – and it’s important to understand why.
At a high-level, let’s break down what’s happening and the best way to navigate it.
What’s Driving Today’s Market Volatility?
Factors like economic data, unemployment numbers, decisions coming out of the Federal Reserve (The Fed), and even the presidential election, are creating uncertainty right now – and uncertainty leads to market volatility.
You can see that when you look at what’s happening with mortgage rates. New economic reports and other geopolitical events have an impact and can cause sudden shifts up or down, even though experts still forecast rates will come down overall. We’ve seen that effect play out recently, like when employment and inflation data get released each month.
And as the markets react, these types of updates will continue to have an impact on rates moving forward. As Greg McBride, CFA, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:
“After steadily declining throughout the summer months, I expect more ups and downs to mortgage rates . . . Job market data will be closely watched as well as any clues from the Fed about the extent of upcoming interest rate cuts.”
This is exactly why the projected decline in mortgage rates isn’t going to be a straight line down over the next year. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains:
“Rates have shown considerable volatility lately, and may continue to do so . . . Overall, we still expect a downward long-term mortgage rate trend.”
Plus, home prices and the number of homes on the market vary dramatically depending on where you’re looking to buy or sell, which makes it even harder to get a clear picture. In some areas, home prices are rising and inventory is tight, while in others, there are more homes available and it’s leading to more moderate pricing shifts.
As all of this unfolds, understanding what’s happening will help you make the right decisions, whether that’s buying or selling. And there’s one easy way to get that information: from a professional.
The Importance of Partnering with a Pro
While the road ahead may have some bumps and unexpected turns, you don’t have to go it alone. A great agent will keep you up to date on the latest market developments, guide you through any shifts, and help you make smart decisions based on your goals.
For example, as mortgage rates change, professionals (like your agent and a trusted lender) will explain how the shifts impact what you can reasonably plan for in your monthly payment. This will help you see how even a small change in rates can impact your bottom line – that way you don’t lose sight of the big picture even as shifts happen here and there.
And since conditions can vary significantly from one neighborhood to another, your agent will also help you understand the specifics of your market—whether it’s how to navigate competition with other buyers, the number of homes available, or what’s happening with local home prices. Their insights and expertise will help you adapt to any movement in the market.
Bottom Line
The housing market may be experiencing some shifts, but don’t let it stop you from making your move. With the support of an experienced real estate agent and a trusted lender, you’ll be ready to navigate the changes and make the most of the opportunities that come your way.
Let’s turn any uncertainty into your advantage, helping you move forward with confidence.
Is a Fixer Upper Right for You?
Looking to buy a home but feeling like almost everything is out of reach? Here’s the thing. There’s still a way to become a homeowner, even when affordability seems like a huge roadblock – and it might be with a fixer upper. Let’s dive into why buying a fixer upper could be your ticket to homeownership and how you can make it work.
What Is a Fixer Upper?
A fixer upper is a home that’s in livable condition but needs some work. The amount of work varies by home – some may need cosmetic updates like wallpaper removal and new flooring, while others might require more extensive repairs like replacing a roof or updating plumbing.
Because they need some elbow grease, these homes typically have a lower price point, based on local market value. In fact, a survey from StorageCafe explains that fixer uppers generally cost about 29% less than move-in-ready homes.
And that’s why, according to a recent survey, more buyers are considering homes that need a little extra work right now (see below):
If you’re looking for an option to get your foot in the door, and you’re willing to roll up your sleeves and do a bit of work, a house with untapped potential may be a good option.
Tips for Buying a Home That Needs Some Work
Before you buy a home that may need a makeover, here are a few things to keep in mind:
- Choose a Good Location: You can repair a house, but you can’t change where it is. Make sure the home is in a neighborhood you like or one with increasing property values and a growing number of local amenities. This way, even after you spend money fixing it up, the house will be worth more later.
- Budget for Surprises: Fixing up a house can take more time and money than you might think. Make sure you save room in your budget for unexpected repairs or other unknowns that might come up while you’re working on the house.
- Get a Home Inspection: Before you buy, hire an inspector to check out the house. They’ll help you determine the necessary repairs, so you don’t end up with expensive surprises later.
- Plan Your Priorities: When deciding what to tackle first, it helps to categorize your goals. Think of your home in three ways: the must-haves (essential repairs), the nice-to-haves (upgrades that would make life easier), and the dream-state features (luxuries you can add later). This will help you prioritize and stick to your budget.
Remember, the perfect home is the one you perfect after buying it. By starting with a fixer upper, you have the opportunity to customize a home to your liking while saving money on the initial purchase price. With careful planning, budgeting, and a little bit of vision, you can turn a house that needs some love into your perfect home.
Real estate agents are great at finding homes with potential. They know the local market and can guide you to homes where smart upgrades can add value. With their help, you’re more likely to find a house that fits your total budget and has room for worthwhile improvements.
Bottom Line
In today’s market, where the cost of homeownership can be intimidating, finding a move-in-ready home that fits your budget can feel like a real challenge. But if you’re open to putting in a little work, you can transform a fixer upper into your ideal home over time. Let’s explore what’s possible and find a place that’ll work for you.
Q&A: How Do Presidential Elections Impact the Housing Market?
Some Highlights
- Even if you’re not looking to move right away, you may have questions about how the election will impact the housing market.
- When we look at historical trends, combined with what’s happening right now, we can find your answers. Based on historical data, mortgage rates decrease in the months before and home prices and sales increase the year after the election.
- The facts show Presidential elections only have a small and temporary impact on the housing market.
How Real Estate Agents Take the Fear Out of Moving
Feeling a bit unsure, or even afraid, to move with everything going on right now? The decision to move shouldn’t be scary, it should be exciting. And the best way to eliminate any fear is to work with a pro.
Real estate agents are so much more than just transaction facilitators; they’re trusted guides to help you navigate the complexities of the housing market with confidence and ease. And a great agent can turn what may feel like a daunting process into a manageable—and even enjoyable—experience.
That’s why, in a Bright MLS survey, respondents agreed partnering with an agent is essential and helps cut down on their stress:
Here are just a few examples of why that expertise can give you so much peace of mind.
1. Explaining the Current Market
You may be seeing misleading headlines about a potential market crash, falling prices, and more. And when you’re not an expert yourself, it’s easy to get swept up in the clickbait and let that scare you. As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer at Parcl, says:
“In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.”
A real estate agent is there to help you separate fact from fiction and to debunk any headline that does more to terrify than clarify. With their deep understanding of local market trends, home values, inventory levels, and more, they’ll help you feel more confident in your decision.
2. Walking You Through the Process Step-by-Step
Is this your first time going through the process as a buyer or a seller? Don’t worry. Your agent will walk you through every step along the way, from the initial conversation all the way to closing day. As NerdWallet explains:
“If it’s your first time buying — or selling — you’re likely to come across terms you don’t recognize and tasks that seem baffling. What’s the difference between pending and contingent? Why do you need title insurance? How thoroughly do you need to fill out disclosure forms? Your agent should be able to confidently and competently explain it all.”
And if you’ve done this before, but it’s been a while, an agent will tailor how they explain it all to your previous experience. They won’t bog you down with details, they’ll only give you as much of a refresher as you want and need.
3. Advocating for Your Best Interests
Does the thought of dealing with the back and forth of the transaction make your palms sweaty? Put that anxiety aside. Your agent is a skilled negotiator trained for these exact scenarios. And the best part is, they work for you. So, it’s your goals they’re using that expertise to fight for.
They’ll work to secure the best possible terms for you, whether it’s getting a better price as a homebuyer or negotiating a higher sale price as a seller. This removes the fear of a bad deal or being taken advantage of during the process.
4. Solving Any Unexpected Problems Quickly
Worried something is going come up that you don’t know how to handle? Rest assured, your agent has you covered.
Agents are skilled problem-solvers. They not only address issues, but they get ahead of them before they become deal-breakers – and that helps keep the process on track. So, if any challenges do pop up, know your agent has the skills and experience necessary to find a solution that works for you.
Bottom Line
Don’t let fear or uncertainty hold you back from achieving your goals. Let’s connect so you can move forward with confidence.
Avoid These Top Homebuyer Mistakes in Today’s Market
No one likes making mistakes, especially when they happen in what’s likely the biggest transaction of your life – buying a home.
That’s why partnering with a trusted agent is so important. Here’s a sneak peek at the most common missteps buyers are making in today’s market and how a great agent will help you steer clear of each one.
Trying To Time the Market
Many buyers are trying to time the market by waiting for home prices or mortgage rates to drop. This can be a really risky strategy because there’s so much at play that can have an impact on those things. As Elijah de la Campa, Senior Economist at Redfin, says:
“My advice for buyers is don’t try to time the market. There are a lot of swing factors, like the upcoming jobs report and the presidential election, that could cause the housing market to take unexpected twists and turns. If you find a house you love and can afford to buy it, now’s not a bad time.”
Buying More House Than You Can Afford
If you’re tempted to stretch your budget a bit further than you should, you’re not alone. A number of buyers are making this mistake right now.
But the truth is, it’s actually really important to avoid overextending your budget, especially when other housing expenses like home insurance and taxes are on the rise. You want to talk to the pros to make sure you understand what’ll really work for you. Bankrate offers this advice:
“Focus on what monthly payment you can afford rather than fixating on the maximum loan amount you qualify for. Just because you can qualify for a $300,000 loan doesn’t mean you can comfortably handle the monthly payments that come with it along with your other financial obligations.”
Missing Out on Assistance Programs That Can Help
Saving up for the upfront costs of homeownership takes some careful planning. You’ve got to think about your closing costs, down payment, and more. And if you don’t work with a team of experienced professionals, you could miss out on programs out there that can make a big difference for you. This is happening more than you realize.
According to Realtor.com, almost 80% of first-time buyers qualify for down payment assistance – but only 13% actually take advantage of those programs. So, talk to a lender about your options. Whether you’re buying your first house or your fifth, there may be a program that can help.
Not Leaning on the Expertise of a Pro
This last one may be the most important of all. The very best way to avoid making a mistake that’s going to cost you is to lean on a pro. With the right team of experts, you can easily dodge these missteps.
Bottom Line
The good news is you don’t have to deal with any of these headaches. Let’s connect so you have a pro on your side who can help you avoid these costly mistakes.
Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections
With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down.
Election Years Bring a Temporary Slowdown
In any given year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall. It’s a typical, seasonal trend. However, according to data from BTIG, in election years there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below):
Why? Uncertainty. Many consumers hold off on making major decisions or purchases while they wait to see how the election will play out. It’s a pattern that’s shown up time and time again, and it’s particularly apparent for buyers and sellers in the housing market.
This year is no different. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers said they’re waiting until after the election to buy. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers hitting the pause button, likely due to the same feelings of uncertainty.
Home Sales Bounce Back After the Election
The good news is these delayed sales aren’t lost forever—they’re just postponed. History shows sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election (see chart below):
That’s because once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a sense of what’s ahead and generally feel more confident moving forward with their decisions. And that leads to a boost in home sales.
What To Expect in 2025
If history is any indicator, that means more homes will sell next year. And based on the latest forecasts, that’s exactly what you should expect. As the graph below shows, the housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year (see graph below):
And that aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds.
So, while it might feel like the market is slowing down right now, it’s more of a temporary dip rather than a long-term trend. As has been the case before, once the election uncertainty passes, buyers and sellers will return to the market.
Bottom Line
It’s important to remember that while election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, the pause is usually temporary. Those sales are not lost. Data shows home sales typically increase the year after a Presidential election, and current forecasts indicate 2025 will be no different. If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead.
Is It Better To Rent Than Buy a Home Right Now?
You may have seen reports in the news recently saying it’s more affordable to rent right now than it is to buy a home. And while that may be true in some markets if you just look at typical monthly payments, there’s one thing that the numbers aren’t factoring in: and that’s home equity. Here’s a look at how big of an impact equity can have and why it’s worth considering as you make your decision.
What the Headlines Are Based on
The graph below uses national data on the median rental payment from Realtor.com and median mortgage payment from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to compare the two options. As the graph shows, especially if you’re not looking for a lot of space, it can be more affordable on a monthly basis to rent:
But if you’re looking for something with 2 bedrooms, the gap between the median rent and the median mortgage payment starts to shrink to a difference that may be more doable. The median monthly mortgage payment is $2,040. The median monthly rent for 2 bedrooms is $1,889. That’s a difference of about $151 a month. But here’s what happens when you factor in equity too.
How Equity Changes the Game
If you rent, your monthly rental payments only go toward covering your housing costs and your landlord’s expenses. So other than saving a bit more per month and maybe getting your rental deposit back when you move, the money you spent on housing each month is gone – forever.
When you buy, your monthly mortgage payment pays for your shelter, but it also acts as an investment. That investment grows in the form of equity as you make your mortgage payment each month and chip away at what you owe on your home loan. Your equity gets an extra boost as home values climb – which they typically do.
To give you a clearer idea of how equity can really stack up fast, here’s some data for you. Each quarter, Fannie Mae and Pulsenomics publish the results of the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES). It asks more than 100 economists, real estate professionals, and investment and market strategists what they think will happen with home prices. In the latest release, those experts say home prices are going to keep going up over the next five years.
Here’s an example of how equity builds based on the projections from the HPES (see graph below):
Imagine you purchased a home for $400,000 at the start of this year. Chances are, since you bought, you plan to stay put for a while. Based on the HPES projections, if you live there for 5 years, you could end up gaining over $83,000 in household wealth as your home grows in value.
Here’s how that stacks up compared to renting, using the overall median rent from above:
While you may save a bit on your monthly payments if you rent right now, you’ll also miss out on gaining equity.
So, what’s the big takeaway? Whether it makes more sense to rent or buy is going to vary based on your personal finances. It’s not a good idea to buy if the numbers truly don’t work for you. But, if you’re ready and able, adding equity as the final puzzle piece may be enough to help you realize buying is a better move in the long run.
Bottom Line
When it comes down to it, buying a home gives you a benefit renting just can’t provide – and that’s the chance to gain equity. If you want to take advantage of long-term home price appreciation, let’s go over your options.
Newly Built Homes Could Be a Game Changer This Spring
Buying a home this spring? You’re probably navigating today’s affordability challenges and dealing with the limited number of homes for sale. But, what if there was a solution that could help with both?
If you’re having a hard time finding a home you love, and mortgage rates are putting pressure on your budget, it may be time to look at newly built homes. Here’s why.
New Home Construction Is an Inventory Bright Spot
When looking for a home, you can choose between existing homes (those that are already built and previously owned) and newly constructed ones. While the number of existing homes for sale has increased this year, there are still fewer available than there were in more typical years in the housing market, like back in 2018 or 2019.
So, if you’re looking to expand your pool of options even more, turning to newly built homes can help. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:
“The shortage of existing homes For Sale has opened up the possibility of new-home construction to more buyers who may not have once considered it.”
And the good news is, there are more newly built homes to pick from right now. The graphs below use data from the Census to show how new home construction is ramping up in two key areas (see most recent spike in green):
Starts, or homes where builders just broke ground, have seen a big increase lately. And completions, homes that builders just finished, are also up significantly. So, if you want a new, move-in ready home or you want to get in early and customize your build along the way, you have more options right now.
Builders Are Offering Incentives To Help with Affordability
And to sweeten the pot, builders are offering things like mortgage rate buy-downs and other perks for homebuyers right now. This can help offset today’s affordability challenges while also getting you into your dream home. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains why you may find builders have more wiggle room to offer more for you than the typical homeowner:
“Builders aren’t rate locked-in. They would love to sell you the home because they’re not living in it. It costs money not to sell the home. And many of the public home builders have said in their earnings calls that they are not going to be pulling back on incentives, especially the mortgage rate buydown, so that will help the new-home market continue to perform well in the spring home-buying season.”
An article from HousingWire also says this about what builders are offering right now:
“. . . the use of sales incentives still shows some momentum as 60% of respondents reported using them, up from 58% in February. “
Just remember, buying from a builder is different from buying from a home seller, so it’s important to partner with a local real estate agent. Builder contracts can be complex. A trusted agent will be your advocate throughout the process.
They’ll be your go-to resource for advice on construction quality and builder reputation, reviewing and negotiating contracts to get you the best deal, helping you decide on which customizations and upgrades are most worthwhile, and a whole lot more.
Bottom Line
If you’re struggling to find a home to buy, or with today’s affordability challenges, let’s connect to see if newly built homes could be the solution you’re looking for.
Finding Your Perfect Home in a Fixer Upper
If you’re trying to buy a home and are having a hard time finding one you can afford, it may be time to consider a fixer-upper. That’s a house that needs a little elbow grease or some updates, but has good bones. Fixer-uppers can be a really great option if you’re looking to break into the housing market or want to stretch your budget further. According to NerdWallet:
“Buying a fixer-upper can provide a path to homeownership for first-time home buyers or a way for repeat buyers to afford a larger home or a better neighborhood. With the relatively low inventory of homes for sale these days, a move-in ready home can be hard to find, especially if you’re on a budget.”
Basically, since the number of homes for sale is still so low, if you’re only willing to tour homes that have all your dream features, you may be cutting down your options too much and making it harder on yourself than necessary. It may be time to cast a wider net.
Sometimes the perfect home is the one you perfect after buying it.
Here’s some information that can help you pinpoint what you truly need so you can be strategic in your home search. First, make a list of all the features you want in a home. From there, work to break those features into categories like this:
- Must-Haves – If a house doesn’t have these features, it won’t work for you and your lifestyle.
- Nice-To-Haves – These are features you’d love to have but can live without. Nice-to-haves aren’t dealbreakers, but if you find a home that hits all the must-haves and some of these, it’s a contender.
- Dream State – This is where you can really think big. Again, these aren’t features you’ll need, but if you find a home in your budget that has all the must-haves, most of the nice-to-haves, and any of these, it’s a clear winner.
Once you’ve sorted your list in a way that works for you, share it with your real estate agent. They’ll help you find homes that deliver on your top needs right now and have the potential to be your dream home with a little bit of sweat equity. Lean on their expertise as you think through what’s possible, what features are easy to change or add, and how to make it happen. According to Progressive:
“Many real estate agents specialize in finding fixer-uppers and have a network of inspectors, contractors, electricians, and the like.”
Your agent can also offer advice on which upgrades and renovations will set you up to get the greatest return on your investment if you ever decide to sell down the line.
Bottom Line
If you haven’t found a home you love that’s in your budget, it may be worth thinking through all your options, including fixer-uppers. Sometimes the perfect home for you is the one you perfect after buying it. To see what’s available in our area, let’s connect.
