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Will a Silver Tsunami Change the 2024 Housing Market?
Have you ever heard the term “Silver Tsunami” and wondered what it’s all about? If so, that might be because there’s been lot of talk about it online recently. Let’s dive into what it is and why it won’t drastically impact the housing market.
What Does Silver Tsunami Mean?
A recent article from HousingWire calls it:
“. . . a colloquialism referring to aging Americans changing their housing arrangements to accommodate aging . . .”
The thought is that as baby boomers grow older, a significant number will start downsizing their homes. Considering how large that generation is, if these moves happened in a big wave, it would affect the housing market by causing a significant uptick in the number of larger homes for sale. That influx of homes coming onto the market would impact the balance of supply and demand and more.
The concept makes sense in theory, but will it happen? And if so, when?
Why It Won’t Have a Huge Impact on the Housing Market in 2024
Experts say, so far, a silver tsunami hasn’t happened – and it probably won’t anytime soon. According to that same article from HousingWire:
“. . . the silver tsunami’s transformative potential for the U.S. housing market has not yet materialized in any meaningful way, and few expect it to anytime soon.”
Here’s just one reason why. Many baby boomers don’t want to move. Data from the AARP shows over half of the surveyed adults ages 65 and up plan to stay put and age in place in their current home rather than move (see chart below):
Clearly, not every baby boomer is planning to sell or move – and even those who do won’t do it all at once. Instead, it will be more gradual, happening slowly over time. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“Demographics are never a tsunami. The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births. That means they’re going to take about two decades to work their way through.”
Bottom Line
If you’re worried about a Silver Tsunami shaking up the housing market, don’t be. Any impact from baby boomers moving will be gradual over many years. Fleming sums it up best:
“Demographic trends, they don’t tsunami. They trickle.”
Why It’s More Affordable To Buy a Home This Year
Some Highlights
- Home affordability depends on three factors: mortgage rates, home prices, and wages.
- Mortgage rates are down from their recent peak, home prices are expected to rise at a slower pace, and wages are increasing faster than usual.
- That’s good news if you want to buy a home because it means affordability is getting better.
Key Terms Every Homebuyer Should Learn
Some Highlights
- Buying a home is a big deal and can feel especially complicated if you don’t know the terms used during the process.
- If you want to become a homeowner this year, it’s a good idea to learn these key housing terms and understand how they relate to the current housing market. That will help you feel confident when you buy a home.
- Let’s connect so you can get expert help with any questions you have.
Achieving Your Homebuying Dreams in 2024
Some Highlights
- Planning to buy a home in 2024? Here’s what to focus on.
- Improve your credit score, plan for your down payment, get pre-approved, and decide what’s most important to you.
- Let’s connect so you have expert advice on how to achieve your homebuying goals this year.
What You Need To Know About Saving for a Home in 2024
If you’re planning to buy a home, knowing what to budget for and how to save may sound intimidating – but it doesn’t have to be. One way to ease those concerns is to make sure you understand some of the costs you may encounter up front. And to do that, always turn to trusted real estate professionals. They can help you set a plan and take a strategic look at your budget and your process before you even get started.
Here are just a few things experts say you should be thinking about.
1. Down Payment
Saving for your down payment is likely top of mind as you set out to buy a home. But do you know how much you’ll need? While every buyer’s situation is different, there’s a common misconception that putting 20% of the purchase price down is required. An article from the Mortgage Reports explains why that’s not always the case:
“The idea that you have to put 20% down on a house is a myth. . . . The right amount depends on your current savings and your home buying goals.”
To understand your options, partner with trusted real estate professionals to go over the various loan types, down payment assistance programs, and what each one requires. The more you know ahead of time, the easier the process will be.
2. Closing Costs
Make sure you also budget for closing costs, which are a collection of fees and payments made to the various parties involved in your transaction. Bankrate explains:
“Closing costs are the fees you pay when finalizing a real estate transaction, whether you’re refinancing a mortgage or buying a new home. These costs can amount to 2 to 5 percent of the mortgage so it’s important to be financially prepared for this expense.”
The best way to understand what you’ll need at the closing table is to work with a trusted lender. They can provide you with answers to the questions you might have.
3. Earnest Money Deposit
If you want to cover all your bases, you can also consider saving for an earnest money deposit (EMD). An EMD is money you pay as a show of good faith when you make an offer on a house. According to Realtor.com, it’s usually between 1% and 2% of the total home price.
This deposit works like a credit. It’s not an added expense – it’s paying a portion of your costs upfront. You’re using some of the money you’ve already saved for your purchase to show the seller you’re committed and serious about buying their house. Realtor.com describes how it works as part of your sale:
“It tells the real estate seller you’re in earnest as a buyer . . . Assuming that all goes well and the buyer’s good-faith offer is accepted by the seller, the earnest money funds go toward the down payment and closing costs. In effect, earnest money is just paying more of the down payment and closing costs upfront.”
Keep in mind, an EMD isn’t required, and it doesn’t guarantee your offer will be accepted. It’s important to work with a real estate advisor to understand what’s best for your situation and any specific requirements in your local area. They’ll advise you on what moves you should make so you can make the best possible decisions throughout the buying process.
Bottom Line
When buying a home, being informed about what to save for is key. Let’s connect so you’ll have an expert on your side to answer any questions you have along the way.
Get Your House Ready To Sell This Winter
Some Highlights
- As you get ready to sell your house, there are a few things you should add to your to-do list to make it inviting and boost curb appeal.
- To name just a couple, it’s a good idea to declutter, take down personal photos and items, touch up any scuffs on the walls, and tidy up your landscaping.
- Connect with a trusted real estate professional for advice on what else you may want to do to get your house ready to sell this season.
Expert Quotes on the 2024 Housing Market Forecast
If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home soon, you probably want to know what you can expect from the housing market in 2024. In 2023, higher mortgage rates, confusion over home price headlines, and a lack of homes for sale created some challenges for buyers and sellers looking to make a move. But what’s on the horizon for the new year?
The good news is, many experts are optimistic we’ve turned a corner and are headed in a positive direction.
Mortgage Rates Expected To Ease
Recently, mortgage rates have started to come back down. This has offered hope to buyers dealing with affordability challenges. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains how they may continue to drop:
“Mortgage rates have already retreated from recent peaks near 8 percent and may fall further . . .”
Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“For home buyers who are taking on a mortgage to purchase a home and have been wary of the autumn rise in mortgage rates, the market is turning more favorable, and there should be optimism entering 2024 for a better market.”
The Supply of Homes for Sale May Grow
As rates ease, activity in the housing market should pick up because more buyers and sellers who had been holding off will jump back into action. If more sellers list, the supply of homes for sale will grow – a trend we’ve already started to see this year. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, says:
“Supply will loosen up in 2024. Even homeowners who have been characterized as being ‘locked in’ to low rates will increasingly find that changing family and financial circumstances will lead to more moves and more new listings over the course of the year, particularly as rates move closer to 6.5%.”
Home Price Growth Should Moderate
And mortgage rates pulling back isn’t the only positive sign for affordability. Home price growth is expected to moderate too, as inventory improves but is still low overall. As the Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, a survey of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts, says:
“On average, the panel anticipates home price growth to clock in at 5.9% in 2023, to be followed by slower growth in 2024 and 2025 of 2.4 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively.”
To wrap it up, experts project 2024 will be a better year for the housing market. So, if you’re thinking about making a move next year, know that early signs show we’re turning a corner. As Mike Simonsen, President and Founder of Altos Research, puts it:
“We’re going into 2024 with slight home-price gains, somewhat easing inventory constraints, slightly increasing transaction volume . . . All in all, things are looking up for the U.S. housing market in 2024.”
Bottom Line
Experts are optimistic about what 2024 holds for the housing market. If you’re looking to buy or sell a home in the new year, the best way to ensure you’re up to date on the latest forecasts is to partner with a trusted real estate agent. Let’s connect.
Why Now Is Still a Great Time To Sell Your House
If you were worried buyer demand disappeared when mortgage rates went up, the data shows there are plenty of interested buyers still out there. The housing market isn’t as frenzied as it was during the ‘unicorn’ years when buyer demand was through the roof, mortgage rates were historically low, and home values rose like we’ve never seen before. But that doesn’t mean the market is at a standstill.
Nationally, demand is still high compared to the last normal years in the housing market and plenty of buyers are making moves right now. Here’s the data to prove it.
Showing Traffic Is Up
The ShowingTime Showing Index is a measure of how frequently buyers are touring homes. The graph below uses that index to show buyer activity over the past eight Octobers:
In the graph, the ‘unicorn’ years are shown in pink. You can see demand has dipped some since then. That’s in response to higher mortgage rates. But, when you compare 2023 to the blue bars on the left that represent the last normal years in the market (2018-2019), you can tell buyers are still more active than the norm.
But showing traffic isn’t the only way to see buyer demand is still high. The number of offers other sellers are getting and the average days homes are on the market tell the same story.
Sellers Are Still Seeing Multiple Offers
According to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sellers are receiving an average of 2.5 offers on their houses. Let’s look at how that compares to recent years (see graph below):
It’s true that’s fewer than the number of offers sellers were receiving during the ‘unicorn’ years (shown in pink). But compared to last year, the number is up slightly. And it’s higher than it was in the more normal, pre-‘unicorn’ years in the housing market too.
Homes Priced Right Are Selling Fast
And it’s not just that sellers are still typically getting multiple offers more than the norm, they’re also seeing their homes sell fast. That’s a direct result of strong buyer demand. According to Zillow:
“. . . low inventory levels are spurring surprisingly strong competition . . . demand has remained resilient, and attractive, appropriately priced listings are moving quickly.”
To help showcase that homes for sale are still going quickly, let’s look at data from NAR on the median days on market for this same time of year from 2018 through now (see graph below):
As the graph shows, this year homes are sitting on the market only slightly longer than they were during the frenzy of the ‘unicorn’ years. And compared to the last normal years in the market, homes are still selling much faster than they did back then. That’s good news for sellers because it means there are eager buyers out there right now.
Bottom Line
You haven’t missed your chance to sell at a time when sellers are receiving multiple offers, and homes are selling fast. When you’re ready to sell your house, let’s connect to get the ball rolling.
The Perfect Home Could Be the One You Perfect After Buying
There’s no denying mortgage rates and home prices are higher now than they were last year and that’s impacting what you can afford. At the same time, there are still fewer homes available for sale than the norm. These are two of the biggest hurdles buyers are facing today. But there are ways to overcome these things and still make your dream of homeownership a reality.
As you set out to make a purchase this season, you’ll want to be strategic. This includes taking a close look at your wish list and considering what features you really need in your next home versus which ones are nice-to-have. This will help you avoid overextending your budget or limiting your pool of options too much because you’re searching for that perfect home.
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:
“The key to making a good decision in this challenging housing market is to be laser focused on what you need now and in the years ahead, . . . Another key point is to avoid stretching your budget, as tempting as it may be . . .”
To help identify what you truly need, make a list of all the features you’ll want to see. From there, work to break those features into categories. Here’s a great way to organize your list:
- Must-Haves – If a house doesn’t have these features, it won’t work for you and your lifestyle (examples: distance from work or loved ones, number of bedrooms/bathrooms, etc.).
- Nice-To-Haves – These are features you’d love to have but can live without. Nice-to-haves aren’t dealbreakers, but if you find a home that hits all the must-haves and some of these, it’s a contender (examples: a second home office, a garage, etc.).
- Dream State – This is where you can really think big. Again, these aren’t features you’ll need, but if you find a home in your budget that has all the must-haves, most of the nice-to-haves, and any of these, it’s a clear winner (examples: a pool, multiple walk-in closets, etc.).
If you’re only willing to tour homes that have all of your dream features, you may be cutting down your options too much and making it harder on yourself (and your budget) than necessary.
While you’d love to have granite countertops or a pool in the backyard, those are both things you could potentially add after you move. Instead, it may be best to focus on finding the things that you can’t change (like location or a certain number of rooms). Then, you can upgrade or add some of the other features or finishes you want later on.
Sometimes the perfect home is the one you perfect after buying it.
Once you’ve categorized your list in a way that works for you, discuss your top priorities with your real estate agent. They’ll be able to help you refine the list further, coach you through the best way to stick to it, and find a home in your area that meets your top needs.
Bottom Line
With the current affordability challenges and limited housing supply, you’ll want to be strategic so you can find a home that meets your needs while staying within your budget. Let’s connect to make that possible.
Life-Changing Events That Move the Housing Market
Life is a journey filled with unexpected twists and turns, like the excitement of welcoming a new addition, retiring and starting a new adventure, or the bittersweet feeling of an empty nest. If something like this is changing in your own life, you may be considering buying or selling a house. That’s because through all these life-altering events, there is one common thread—the need to move.
Reasons People Still Need To Move Today
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) there have been a lot of this type of milestone or life change over the last two years (see graph below):
And, these big life changes are going to continue to impact people moving forward, even with the current affordability challenges brought on by higher mortgage rates and rising home prices.
As Claire Trapasso, Executive News Editor at Realtor.com, says:
“Because high mortgage rates, elevated home prices, and stubbornly low inventory make today’s housing market particularly challenging, many of today’s buyers are motivated by life changes, such as growing families, supporting elderly parents or grown children, or accommodating professional needs. . .”
Lean On a Real Estate Professional for Help
Whether you’re beginning your search for a home or preparing to sell your current house, you don’t have to go it alone. With their expertise, a real estate agent is an invaluable partner who can help you smoothly transition through these big moments in your life. Here are just a few examples.
When Buying a Home
If you’re welcoming a new addition and want more space, the need for a new home may be a top priority. While higher home prices and mortgage rates are creating challenges for buyers, you may have to find a way to meet your changing needs, even with today’s mortgage rates.
A skilled real estate agent can help. Their expertise and knowledge of the local housing market can save you a considerable amount of time and stress. An agent will take the time to understand your specific needs, budget, and preferences, allowing them to narrow down your search and present you with suitable options.
When Selling a House
If you’re retiring or going through a separation or divorce, your main focus may be to make the most out of your investment when selling your house, so you can find one that works better for you moving forward.
This is another place where a real estate agent’s expertise truly shines. They can accurately assess your home’s market value, suggest improvements to enhance its appeal, and craft a strategic marketing plan. Their negotiation skills are a big asset when it comes to making sure you get a fair price for your house, allowing you to move on to the next chapter of your life with confidence and peace of mind.
No matter your situation, lean on a trusted professional for help as you buy or sell a home.
Bottom Line
If recent life-changing events have you wanting or needing to move, let’s connect.
